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Complications of war in Iran ✏️ Glenn Junsay Pansensoy  ·  📁 International Condition  ·  ⏱️ 4 min read The 2026 Iran War: Geopolitical Fractures and the Crisis of the Strait The 2026 Iran War: Geopolitical Fractures and the Crisis of the Strait The conflict that ignited on February 28, 2026 , represents a watershed moment in 21st-century geopolitics. What began as a targeted military operation by the United States and Israel has evolved into a multi-layered global crisis, intertwining energy security, regional stability, and the future of international trade. As of late April 2026, the world remains in the shadow of a shaky, Pakistan-mediated ceasefire, while the economic and humanitarian aftershocks continue to widen. I. The Genesis of the Conflict: Strategic Calculations The escalation to open warfare was not a sudden pivot but the culmination of a decade of deteriorating relations. By late 2025, the collapse of the J...

A disruptive war ✏️ Glenn Junsay Pansensoy  ·  📁 International Condition  ·  ⏱️ 6 min read Iran War & Global Trade Disruption Analysis Geopolitical Trade Analysis The Iran War & Global Trade Disruption The war in Iran has severely disrupted international trade, primarily through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil and significant LNG flows. This has spiked energy prices, rerouted shipping via longer paths like the Cape of Good Hope, and imposed conflict surcharges by carriers. Economies worldwide face higher costs, supply chain delays, and recession risks if disruptions persist. 🛢️ Strait of Hormuz Closure Iran's blockade has halted roughly 20 million barrels of daily oil transit, driving crude prices above $80 per barrel and potentially to $100–$200. War-risk insurance premi...

The energy under the West Philippine Sea ✏️ Glenn Junsay Pansensoy  ·  📁 National Affairs  ·  ⏱️ 4 min read The West Philippine Sea: The Heartbeat of Philippine Energy Future The West Philippine Sea (WPS): The Heartbeat of Philippine Energy Future The West Philippine Sea (WPS) is often framed through the lens of sovereign pride or maritime skirmishes, but the cold reality is far more pragmatic: It is the heartbeat of the Philippine energy future. While the headlines capture the drama of water cannons, the true battle is being fought over the seabed—specifically, the vast untapped hydrocarbon reserves that represent the country's only hope for long-term energy independence. The Malampaya "Cliff" To understand the urgency, one must look at the Malampaya gas field . For over two decades, Malampaya has been the crown jewel of Philippine energy, powering roughly 20% to 40% of Luzon’s electricity grid . ...